Jacques Bulchand Gidumal , University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Santiago Melián González , University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
Numerous reports warn about the possible impact of AI and robotics on employment. One of the main ones would be the disappearance of jobs. Although figures vary, there seems to be agreement that there will be a significant reduction in employment in some occupations.
Among many others, we cite a recent report that estimates the net destruction of employment for Spain in the next 10 years at 400,000 jobs. Of these, more than 100,000 would correspond to the hospitality sector. The International Monetary Fund, for its part, says that 40% of jobs worldwide are exposed to the risks of AI , although it does not specify to what extent this exposure implies the disappearance of jobs.
In the case of the US, a study by the consulting firm McKinsey estimates that 30% of working hours will be lost which, in the worst case, could mean up to 30% of lost jobs.
More precisely, and in the field of nursing homes, a study carried out in 2021 found that the use of robots increases work and improves worker retention by allowing more flexible contracts, but also causes them to reduce the salaries.
EMPLOYMENT AND TOURISM
The tourism sector is one of the most important in terms of employment both worldwide and in Spain, where 12.5% of employment depends on the tourism sector, although with great variations between autonomous communities.
In the Canary Islands , for example, it reaches figures close to 40%.
Historically, technology has automated work in the agricultural and industrial sectors. Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter explains the elimination of these jobs with his theory of creative job destruction , which points out that while technology destroys jobs in one area, it also generates other activities that create new jobs.
The question is to determine whether in the case of Spain and regions such as the Canary Islands the destruction of jobs due to AI can be expected. Or if, on the contrary, a situation similar to that of the 80s of the 20th century could occur, when information technologies arrived. Although jobs were lost then, others were created as new professions and industries were created.
STUDY THE MICROTASK
The analysis should not be done at the job level but at the task (and even microtask) level. The vast majority of studies carried out so far have been based on jobs, ignoring the following:
- Jobs are made up of numerous tasks that differ in the behaviors and skills that workers must perform.
- Technology is typically created to automate tasks or activities.
To date we have not seen a robot that does all the tasks that a waiter does. On the other hand, robots can already be seen carrying out the task of bringing dishes from the kitchen to the tables. A restaurant or cafeteria that has this type of simple robots will not do without waiters but will probably need fewer.
AUTOMATION AND WORK TIME
The work time involved in the task or tasks that may become automated must be taken into account. If these consume a large part of the total work time, the risk of automation will be high. This is the case of many of the tasks that workers previously performed in bank offices.
In Spain, between 2010 and 2022, the number of credit institution offices has decreased by 59% and the employees of these entities by 39% . There will still be offices and staff in them, but fewer, and mainly for other services.
GENERAL PURPOSE
It is especially important to analyze the positions that generate the most employment. That AI and robotics can automate management positions is relevant, but it is much more relevant that they automate positions that generate a large amount of employment. In hotels, cleaning staff, kitchen staff, waiters and receptionists, for example.
In the case of the hotel industry, when the analysis is done at the task level, our research confirms that, in general, as long as there is no general artificial intelligence that is capable of generating general-purpose robots, significant automation will not occur.
The AI and robotics systems currently available are very good at doing specific tasks. From this point of view, it is relatively feasible to think that, in a hotel, for example, there could be robots that clean the room floors. It is more difficult to think of a scenario in which, to clean a room, a multitude of different robots are needed, each in charge of a task, or in the possibility of having a single robot capable of carrying out all the tasks necessary to clean a room. clean a room
ROBOTIZE TASKS
Are tourism jobs at risk of automation due to AI and robotics? The research we have conducted so far tells us no.
The tasks of the most representative positions in this activity present some of the current bottlenecks for automation . For example, the need to perceive and manipulate objects at a sophisticated level or the use of social skills in interacting with people.
Partial automation may occur, but not a significant reduction in workforce. However, even partial automation would cause less job creation. This situation would be especially relevant in regions with high structural unemployment.
WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD?
Two important final notes:
- It is difficult to foresee technological advances, as the appearance of ChatGPT in 2022 showed us. Will generative robots arrive soon , capable of playing the same role as generative AI, being able to learn to do tasks by observing humans doing them?
- It is common to hear business representatives complain about the difficulties they experience in personnel management, due to issues such as absenteeism and the difficulty in filling vacancies. These difficulties can drive the adoption of technologies that help overcome them.
Jacques Bulchand Gidumal , Professor of Business and Digital Tourism, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria and Santiago Melián González , Chair professor, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
This article was originally published on The Conversation . Read the original .
